For a long time, fashion trends were thought to resurface every two decades. Twenty years was sufficient for a trend to gain popularity, fade into obscurity, and then reappear with a modern twist. While this 20-year cycle still holds some truth, technology and social media have significantly shortened the lifespan of trends. Styles from various decades now emerge seemingly at random, and multiple styles can coexist in popularity. Design and merchandising technologies have accelerated speed-to-market, while social media platforms can catapult trends to fame or oblivion overnight.
Today, fashion trends originate from diverse sources: celebrities, influencers, runway shows, textile manufacturers, social media, music, and more. Their trajectory is influenced by designers, stylists, and trend forecasters. A trend might surge in popularity for one reason and decline for another, making them a somewhat unpredictable phenomenon. However, certain patterns persist. The Fashion Life cycle typically comprises five stages: Introduction, Rise, Peak, Decline, and Obsolescence.
A new fashion trend is introduced often by a major brand or designer during Fashion Week. For example, Valentino’s Fall/Winter 2022 collection showcased a vibrant “neon pink,” which subsequently exploded in popularity and became a defining trend for Winter 2023.
While not all new trends achieve such widespread recognition, a major brand’s endorsement significantly increases the likelihood of success among other high-fashion and luxury brands before trickling down to retailers and fast-fashion labels. Trends can also emerge from grassroots movements, like the DIY fashion trend born during the 2020 lockdowns. In the introductory phase, trends often originate within niche audiences, either high-fashion enthusiasts or edgy consumers.
The rise of a fashion trend is often fueled by celebrities and influencers who showcase a style through paid promotions or genuine personal preference. Stylists and media strategists play a crucial role in orchestrating these endorsements. For instance, Dua Lipa and influencers like Camille Charriere embraced buckled biker boots in early 2022, leading to a significant surge in their popularity by the end of the year.
The peak stage marks the climax of a trend’s popularity among the mainstream audience. Major retailers stock the trend, making it accessible to various consumer segments, often at lower prices. Luxury brands usually discontinue the trend at this point. The duration of a trend’s peak is unpredictable. Some trends, like the kitten heel sandal, fade quickly, while others, like ribbed knit fabric, maintain popularity for multiple seasons.
The decline stage follows the peak due to market oversaturation. Widespread popularity often leads to consumer fatigue, prompting a shift towards newer trends. Luxury brands might retain the trend for a short period, while retailers offer discounts before phasing it out entirely.
Obsolescence is the final stage, where a style is deemed “out of fashion.” Consumers abandon the trend in favor of newer ones. However, obsolete trends can re-emerge, revamped to align with current tastes. The bomber jacket, after a period of decline, has recently returned to prominence in collections by brands like Diesel and Martine Rose.
Understanding the cyclical nature of fashion life is crucial for brands to make informed decisions about their collections. Trend forecasting provides valuable data on the past, present, and future behavior of specific trends, enabling brands to anticipate market changes and cater to evolving consumer preferences. While the precise trajectory of a trend remains somewhat elusive, recognizing these patterns empowers brands to navigate the dynamic landscape of fashion. This understanding of fashion life, combined with data-driven insights, allows brands to curate collections that resonate with their target audiences and maintain a competitive edge in the ever-changing world of style.
